Ngenxa yokuba ukucaca kweBitcoin akufani neenkqubo zemali zemveli — apho uninzi lokuhamba kwemali lwenziwa ngasemva kweengcango zeenkampani — oku kuzisa intsimi etyebileyo ye-on-chain analytics, apho idatha yenethiwekhi isetyenziswa njengelensi yokuqonda indlela abasebenzisi abaziphatha ngayo, ukuhamba kwemali kunye neendlela zexesha elide. Ezi metrics zinokunceda ukuphendula imibuzo ethile, njengokuba inethiwekhi isetyenziswa kangakanani, ukuba iinkozo zigcinwa okanye zithengiswa, kunye nokuba inethiwekhi ikhuselekile ngakumbi na.
Ukuqonda ezi metrics kuluncedo hayi kuphela kubasebenzisi beBitcoin, kodwa nakubaphandi okanye abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo abafuna ukuqonda le nkqubo yemali icacileyo ngokukhethekileyo.
Icandelo eli liqulathe ezinye zeemetrics ezisetyenziswa rhoqo ekuhlalutyeni umsebenzi weBitcoin ezihlanganiswe kwiindidi ezincinane. Ayiloluhlu olupheleleyo. Ndwendwela www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts ukuze ufumane uluhlu olupheleleyo kunye neenkcazelo.
8.2.1 Iimetrics Zedilesi Iimetrics zedilesi ziluncedo ukujonga ngokuhamba kwexesha njengoko zibonisa inqanaba lomsebenzi kwinethiwekhi yeBitcoin. Umzekelo, njengoko iBitcoin yamkelwa ngakumbi, inani leedilesi ezisebenzayo liyanda. Singakuhlalutya oku ngakumbi ngokubala inani leedilesi ezigcina ubuncinane besixa esithile seBitcoin, umzekelo 0.1 BTC, ngexesha elithile, njengonyaka omnye. Nangona oku kusinika umbono wokwamkelwa kweBitcoin ngokuhamba kwexesha, akuphelelanga kuko kuba umntu omnye anganokuba neendilesi ezininzi zeBitcoin. Ngokuchaseneyo, iindawo zokutshintshiselana okanye ii-ETF zinokubonakala njengezinto ezinye xa zigcina imali yabantu abaninzi.
Iidilesi Ezibambe iBitcoin > X BTC ngonyaka. Umthombo: Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Ngokuthelekisa iidilesi ngexabiso langoku lemarike leBTC kunokwenzeka ukubona ipesenti iyonke yeedilesi zeBitcoin ezikwinzuzo. Oku kusivumela ukuba silandele imvakalelo yentengiso njengoko sibona ukuba yeyiphi inxalenye yentengiso egcina iBTC kwinzuzo okanye ilahleko.
Umzekelo, i-Ipesenti Yengeniso Engazange Iqatshelwe itshathi engezantsi ibonisa inxalenye yeedilesi zonke kwiledger ezinenzuzo engazange iqatshelwe ebalwa ngeedola zaseMelika. Qaphela ukuba, kuba itshathi engezantsi ithathwe kufutshane nexabiso eliphezulu leBitcoin, ipesenti yeedilesi ezibonisa inzuzo engazange iqatshelwe isondele kwikhulu ekhulwini. Singabona kwakhona ukuba amaxesha amade ePesenti Yengeniso Engazange Iqatshelwe aphantsi komphambukeli omnye ukusuka kwixabiso eliphakathi awaqhelekanga. Ngoko ke, ukuhla ngaphantsi kwalo mgca kunokubonisa ithuba elilungileyo kubathengi.
Ipesenti Yengeniso Engazange Iqatshelwe. Umthombo: checkonchain.com
8.2.2 Iimpawu Ze-On-Chain Iimpawu ze-on-chain ziluncedo kuba zinika umbono kwindlela inethiwekhi iziphatha ngayo, ngaphaya koko okunokuboniswa lixabiso kunye neemetrics zedilesi kuphela. Zinceda abahlalutyi baqonde izenzo kunye nemvakalelo yeentlobo ezahlukeneyo zabathathi-nxaxheba, njengabagcini bexesha elide xa kuthelekiswa nabathengisi bexesha elifutshane ngokulandela indlela iinkozo ezigcinwa ngayo, zihanjiswa ngayo, okanye zixabiswa ngayo ngokuhamba kwexesha. Ezi mpawu zisebenzisa ukucaca kweledger ukubonisa iindlela zemarike ezifihlakeleyo ezifana nokuqokelelwa, ukusasazwa, okanye nokuzithemba kwabatyali-mali. Oku kubenza baluncedo ngakumbi ekuchongeni iindlela ezisisiseko, ekuvavanyeni ukuba imarike ishushu kakhulu okanye ixabise kancinci, nasekulindeleni iindawo zokujika kumjikelo wemarike.
Umzekelo, ngokuhlalutya ixabiso leBTC egcinwe ukusukela oko yagqibela ukuthengiswa, sinokufumanisa ukuba imarike ikwisimo esinzima okanye hayi (njengokuba kungaba njalo ngexesha elisezantsi lomjikelo omkhulu). Le metric yaziwa njenge-Ixabiso Eliqatshelweyo kwaye isinika 'ixabiso eliphakathi lokuthenga' leBTC yonke ekukhutshweni. Ukuba ixabiso lemarike lehla lingaphantsi kweXabiso Eliqatshelweyo, oku kubonisa ukuba uninzi lweedilesi zigcina ilahleko ephepheni.
Ngokwahlula idatha yeledger ibe yimigca yeminyaka, singabonisa indlela iBTC ehamba ngayo phakathi kweedilesi ngokuhamba kwexesha, nto leyo edala imijelo efana namaza kwitshathi eyaziwa njenge-HODL waves .
Bitcoin HODL Waves. Umthombo: Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Amaza eHODL abonisa ukuba abagcini bexesha elide, abaphakathi, nabafutshane benza ntoni ngeBTC yabo. Umzekelo, kwitshathi engentla, abagcini bexesha elifutshane baboniswa ngombala obomvu kunye neorenji kwaye sibona ukwanda komsebenzi njengoko eli qela likhawuleza ukuthenga kufutshane neephezulu zentengiso. Kwelinye icala, sibona ukuba abagcini bexesha elide kakhulu (ngombala oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka nomfusa) bonyusa isabelo sabo sonke kwinethiwekhi, nto leyo ebonisa ukuzithemba okuphezulu kula maqela. Itshathi ayigqibelelanga kuba ezinye iinkozo zinokuhamba zisuka kwiidilesi ezindala ziye kwezintsha phantsi kolawulo lomsebenzisi omnye. Nangona kunjalo, inika umbono onomdla wokuzithemba kwabagcini bexesha elide.
Enye indlela yokuhlalutya 'imali ekrelekrele' yabagcini bexesha elide kukujonga Iintsuku ZeeNkozo Ezitshatyalalisiweyo (CDD). Ingcamango ye 'Iintsuku ZeeNkozo' yiphindaphindo lenani leBTC liphindwe ziintsuku ezidlulileyo ukusukela oko iinkozo zagqibela ukuhamba. Umzekelo, i-5 BTC engazange ihambe iintsuku ezili-100 ifumene iintsuku zeenkozo ezingama-500 kwaye i-10 BTC engazange ihambe iintsuku ezili-10 ifumene iintsuku zeenkozo ezili-100. Ngale ndlela, sinika ubunzima obongezelelweyo kwiinkozo ezigcinwe ixesha elide. Xa ezo nkozo zihanjiswa ezo ntsuku zee nkozo 'zitshatyalaliswa'. Le metric ibonisa ukwanda kweCDD ngexesha lokuhamba okukhulu kwamaxabiso, nto leyo inika abahlalutyi indlela yokwahlula umsebenzi oqhelekileyo wemarike kwiinguqu ezibalulekileyo kwimvakalelo yabagcini bexesha elide.
Enye imetric enokunceda ekuchongeni ukuba imarike ixabisa kancinci okanye kakhulu iBTC yiMarket-Value to Realised Value okanye MVRV . Ibalwa lula njengeyona ratio yeMarket Value (inani leBTC ekukhutshweni liphindwe ngexabiso lemarike) yahlulwe ngeRealised Value (isixa seBTC yonke ukusukela zagqibela ukuhamba). I-MVRV ephezulu ibonisa ukuba iinkozo ezininzi zikwinzuzo (ihlala ibonakala kufutshane neephezulu zentengiso) kwaye i-MVRV ephantsi ibonisa ukuba iinkozo ezininzi zigcinwa kwilahleko (ibonakala kufutshane neezantsi zentengiso).
8.2.3 Iimetrics Zokumba Iimetrics zokumba ziluncedo ekuqondeni ukhuseleko, iz incentives zoqoqosho kunye nempilo iyonke yenethiwekhi yeBitcoin. Iimetrics ezifana nehashrate, ingeniso yabavukuzi, ubunzima, kunye neefizi zibonisa ukuba zingakanani amandla ekhompyutha akhusele i-blockchain kunye nokuba abavukuzi bahlawulwa kakuhle kangakanani ngomsebenzi wabo.
I-Hashrate yenethiwekhi yeBitcoin mhlawumbi yeyona metric ixhaphakileyo ekubhekiswa kuyo xa kuthethwa ngempilo yenethiwekhi kunye namandla okhuseleko. Kuba inkqubo yokumba ikhusele inethiwekhi kwaye iqinisekisa ukuba iintengiselwano ezikwiledger zivumelekile, kokukhona kukho amandla ekhompyutha (okanye hashing), kokukhona kunzima kumhlaseli onobubi ukoyisa nokuhlasela inethiwekhi.
Bitcoin Hashrate. Umthombo: Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Itshathi engentla ibonisa ukuba, ngoMeyi 2025, amandla ekhompyutha iyonke yenethiwekhi imi malunga ne-900 TeraHash/s (900 Trillion yokubala 'hash' kwe-cryptographic ngomzuzwana). Ukuba i-hashrate iyanda, ibonisa ukuba inethiwekhi ikhuselekile ngakumbi, nto leyo ethembisayo kubasebenzisi.
I-Puell Multiple (eyenziwe nguDavid Puell) ijonga umjikelo wemarike ukusuka kwindawo yabavukuzi kunye nengeniso yabo. Le metric ibalwa ngokwahlula inani leBTC elikhutshwayo yonke imihla (nge-USD) nge-avareji yokuhamba kweentsuku ezingama-365 yexabiso lokukhutshwa kwemihla ngemihla. Le metric inceda ekuchongeni amaxesha oxinzelelo okanye ukuphumla kwabavukuzi. Kwimbali, i-multiple engaphezulu kwe-3 iye yalandela ukuhla kwexabiso lemarike leBTC, kuba ibonisa ukuba abavukuzi benza inzuzo enkulu. Ixabiso elingaphantsi kwe-0.5 libonisa uxinzelelo kwaye kwimbali libonise ezantsi zexabiso leBTC.